10th U6+ Consortium of African Universities International Conference

Anthropogenic and natural factors drive Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change leading to multiple environmental challenges. Analyzing these modifications provides useful information to support planning and implementation of sustainable landscape management. The study aimed to analyze LULC changes and trends in Tharaka-Nithi County, Kenya, over 22 years from 2001 to 2023. Mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating Remote Sensing and GIS technologies with household surveys and Key Informant interviews (KIIs) collected between November 2023 to March 2024. Post-classification change detection analysis revealed highly dynamic landscape transitions across built-up areas, agricultural zones, and forest or tree cover. Built-up environments experienced a profound surge of 139.18% over the studied period. This rapid urban expansion was heavily catalyzed by institutional changes, specifically the introduction of devolved governance structures following the promulgation of Kenya’s 2010 constitution. Furthermore, the establishment and rapid growth of major higher learning institutions in the region accelerated commercial demand for residential rentals, business premises, and public social infrastructure. Conversely, regional forest and tree cover exhibited highly variable temporal dynamics. Between 2001 and 2014, tree cover expanded significantly by 38%, a positive trajectory principally driven by progressive national policy interventions, such as the Forest Act of 2005 and the Farm Forestry Rules of 2009. However, this trend completely reversed between 2014 and 2023, resulting in a 25.74% decline. Local community perceptions and KIIs directly corroborated these empirical spatial findings. Stakeholders linked the degradation of private farmland tree cover to the overharvesting of timber, domestic firewood extraction, charcoal production, and expanding semi-urban settlements. Understanding these location-specific human drivers offers critical insights for policymakers and regional planners. Ultimately, these empirical insights are vital for monitoring environmental trends and implementing targeted sustainability frameworks, such as Green Infrastructure practices, to enhance tree cover, restore ecosystems, and promote climate change adaptation and mitigation.