10th U6+ Consortium of African Universities International Conference

This study quantifies how climate change will alter annual temperature and precipitation across The Gambia’s five regions: West Coast, North Bank, Lower River, Central River, and Upper River, while identifying spatial hotspots of warming and drying relevant for adaptation. Using a multi-model ensemble of global climate models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, outputs were bias-corrected against 1981–2010 observations with Quantile Delta Mapping and validated using BCSD, then aggregated into regional and national means for three future periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100). Results show robust warming in all regions and scenarios, with late-century outcomes strongly pathway-dependent: under RCP2.6, temperatures stabilise with modest increases, whereas under RCP8.5, annual means exceed 36 °C in the North Bank and approach or surpass 40 °C in the Upper River by 2100. Precipitation projections are heterogeneous but indicate a clear trend towards drying, ranging from near-stable to –5% under RCP2.6 to –20% to –25% under RCP8.5. Divergence across scenarios is modest by mid-century but pronounced by 2100, reinforcing the critical role of mitigation. The Upper River emerges as a high-risk hotspot where extreme warming and drying compound risks. As the first bias-corrected, subnational assessment for The Gambia, this study delivers policy-relevant metrics to inform climate-smart agriculture, water management, health planning, and ecosystem protection.