10th U6+ Consortium of African Universities International Conference

Wetlands within the Kenyan Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) represent critical socio-ecological assets providing essential ecosystem services, including biodiversity conservation, flood mitigation, and water purification. However, escalating anthropogenic pressures and climate variability threaten their ecological integrity, necessitating robust spatiotemporal monitoring. This study quantified multi-decadal, seasonal variations of key ecohydrological drivers across four distinct wetlands (Yala, Dunga, Nyando, and Sio Port) using a multi-sensor remote sensing framework. Earth observation data from Sentinel-2, Landsat (5/7/8/9), MODIS, CHIRPS precipitation, and ERA5-Land reanalysis were integrated to derive spectral indices (NDVI, EVI, NDWI, MNDWI, NDMI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) from 1981 to 2025. Analysis revealed pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity and distinct seasonal trajectories. Peak vegetative productivity and hydrological connectivity occurred during the long-rains season (March–May), characterized by optimal canopy greenness (), surface inundation (), and elevated soil moisture (), coinciding with depressed thermal regimes (). Dry seasons induced severe habitat contraction, evidenced by sharp declines in moisture metrics (; ) and elevated thermal stress (). Inter-wetland comparisons indicated that Yala Swamp exhibited the highest ecohydrological resilience and moisture retention. In contrast, Dunga and Nyando wetlands displayed extreme seasonal volatility, signalling high vulnerability driven by localized urbanization, agricultural encroachment, and sedimentation. Correlation analyses confirmed precipitation as the dominant macro-climatic driver, exhibiting strong positive couplings with moisture indices () and a strong inverse relationship with LST (). While precipitation drives macro-climatic wetland phenology in the LVB, localized anthropogenic disturbances are actively destabilizing these systems, undermining their natural buffering capacities. The heightened seasonal volatility observed in Nyando and Dunga underscores an accelerating transition toward fragmented, disturbance-driven regimes, necessitating targeted, adaptive ecohydrological management strategies to mitigate the intensifying climate-land-use nexus.